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Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this paper, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961331
changes in inflation rates, but, possibly, also to investors' behavior. Secondly, we show that the special US dollar status of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009405600
changes in inflation rates, but, possibly, also to investors' behavior. Secondly, we show that the special US dollar status of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118031
and public information when building inflation expectations in Brazil. The main results are: (i) forecasters attach more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999818
In this paper we explore the role that exchange rate interventions may play in determining inflation expectations in … Chile. To that end, we consider a set of nine deciles of inflation expectations coming from the survey of professional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059560
In this paper we explore the role that exchange rate interventions may play in determining inflation expectations in … Chile. To that end, we consider a set of nine deciles of inflation expectations coming from the survey of professional … a significant, but relatively short-lived, impact on the distribution of inflation expectations at long horizons. On the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079339
uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014376056
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
This paper studies the importance of money for inflation in the euro area. An inflation equation is derived from a … small model that combines the supply and demand for money with a Phillips curve and the assumption that inflation … expectations develop adaptively. The model's solution attributes an impact on inflation not to actual money growth but to its core …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295663
This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605275