find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide …

indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if …In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the … in inflation in a timely manner. But, from that point of view, the construction of a ''synthetic core'' indicator helps …

extract the market's inflation expectation. We illustrate the use of this methodology with data for the beginning of 2007 and … funds target rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Near-term and longer-term inflation expectations appear to have responded …