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Many authors argue that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is important to the conduct and the effects of monetary policy. This paper tests for the existence of such asymmetric information by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We...
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We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...
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This paper compares the effectiveness of date- and state-based forward guidance issued by the Federal Reserve since mid-2011 accounting for the influence of disagreement within the FOMC. Effectiveness is investigated through the lens of interest rates’ sensitivity to macroeconomic news and I...
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In this paper, a simple model of information asymmetry is used to study central bank forecast publication. Central … banks are assumed to choose between not publishing a forecast, publishing a forecast that conditions on current policy …, publishing an unconditional forecast, or publishing both. There is no incentive for the central bank to publish forecasts unless …
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