inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil … scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather … quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a yearover-year basis …

Whittle estimation method, the research examines the longmemory properties of headline inflation through monthly data from … January 1996 to January 2023. The study expands upon existing knowledge of inflation persistence by exploring its changes and … the various patterns of inflation persistence in Europe. The findings reveal significant differences in the persistence of …

Market-based measures of inflation expectations can be derived either from the difference between yields on nominal and … inflation-linked government bonds or from inflation swap rates. These measures are important indicators of the outlook for … inflation and are monitored regularly by the United Kingdom's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), alongside other measures of …

Acting in parallel with changes in Thailand's inflation dynamics, the fall in inflation and inflation variability is a … important role in changing the dynamics of inflation in Thailand. It also shows that the country's monetary policy has been … effective in helping to keep inflation low and stable via well anchored long-run inflation expectations.Full Publication: 'http …

For the first time in the literature, this paper uses survey-based measures of inflation expectations to examine the … relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV). Using quarterly consumer price index data for 74 consumption … expected and unexpected inflation on RPV. Both headline and core inflation measures are used. The results show a statistically …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) inflation tail risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

Issues of inflation measurement are fundamental to the conduct of monetary policy. Price indices form the foundation of … mechanism for holding independent policymakers accountable. To shed some light on the role of inflation measurement, the annual …: Price indices used by central banks; the role of wages and productivity in inflation policy; and the measurement and …

We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap … contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap … rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as …

How do households form their inflation expectations? We show the price changes individual consumers observe while … shopping are a key determinant of their expectation for overall inflation. We use individual non-durable consumption choices in … the Nielsen Homescan Panel to construct household-level measures of perceived inflation. We find perceived price changes …