This article investigates the relationship between central bank credibility and the volatility of the key monetary policy instrument. Two main contributions are proposed. First, we propose a time-varying measure of central bank credibility based on the gap between inflation expectations and the...

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Using US data, we estimate optimal policy with a probability below one that the Fed reneges on its commitment ("limited credibility") versus discretionary policy where the Fed reneges on its commitment at all periods with a probability equal to one ("zero credibility"). The transmission...

This article investigates the relationship between central bank credibility and the volatility of the key monetary policy instrument. Two main contributions are brought forward. First, we propose a time-varying measure of central bank credibility based on the gap between inflation expectations...

We examine whether central banks' voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial...

The main objective of this paper is to estimate a Central Bank reaction function that accounts for the effects of directors' rotation of the Brazilian COPOM (Monetary Policy Committee). The reaction function proposed is assumed to be the mechanism for inflation targeting policy. It accounts for...

We use three different indicators based on inflation expectations to measure central bank credibility in 9 countries in Central and Eastern Europe. We quantify credibility using differences between official inflation targets and inflation expectations as well as differences between inflation...

We measure the tone (sentiment) of the ECB's Governing Council regarding economic outlook at the time of each monetary policy meeting and use this information together with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections to directly estimate the Governing Council's loss function. Our results...

Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not...