This paper models the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Irish SMEs and extrapolates forward their performance as restrictions ease. Our baseline scenario shows a steady recovery path for the median firm. However, indicators of financial difficulties remain persistently high with the...

In this paper we examine the sensitivity of mortgage arrears for Irish households to changes in mortgage interest rates under a series of plausible monetary policy normalisation scenarios. Using panel data over the period 2004 - 2016 we exploit information on current income and current mortgage...

In this paper, we explore the impact of current household repayment capacity on mortgage default using household-level panel data over the period 2004-2017 for Ireland. We measure repayment capacity as changes in the level of the current debtservice to income ratio to capture a direct channel...

This working paper provides an updated overview of the financial block satellite model in COSMO. This block allows for an analysis of macrofinancial relationships and links these back into the main COSMO specification. The critical importance of appropriately assessing macro-financial linkages...