This study aims to evaluate the techniques used for the validation of default probability (DP) models. By generating simulated stress data, we build ideal conditions to assess the adequacy of the metrics in different stress scenarios. In addition, we empirically analyze the evaluation metrics...

Traditional firm valuation discounts forecasted cash consequences that are understood as expected values under some scenario. It is not clear how, and to what extent, uncertainty is incorporated in the valuation. This paper constructs a new valuation model where uncertainty, in particular,...

Under the IFRS 9 impairment model, entities must estimate the PD (Probability of Default) for all financial assets (and other elements) not measured at fair value through profit or loss. There are several methodologies for estimating this PD from market or historical information. However, in...

Small firms play an important role in most modern economies nevertheless they are not without their problems. Therefore, the development of business failure prediction models for small firms is quite important. In the present study we employ three multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) techniques for...

This study proposes a simple theoretical framework that allows for assessing financial distress up to five years in advance. We jointly model financial distress by using two of its key driving factors: declining cash-generating ability and insufficient liquidity reserves. The model is based on...

We present a stochastic simulation model for estimating forward-looking corporate probability of default and loss given default. We formulate the model in a discrete time frame, apply capital-budgeting techniques to define the relationships that identify the default condition, and solve the...

The last decades have witnessed a significant increase in the share of zombie companies worldwide, i.e., companies which survive despite their inability to cover debt servicing costs from their current profits. Using extensive global firm-level data sets on publicly listed companies, we apply...

As recent studies have begun to pay increasing attention to financial distress prediction (FDP), this study compares the performance of static, dynamic and machine learning (ML) models in predicting the financial distress of firms. Balanced and imbalanced datasets of Chinese listed firms that...

Small businesses, the majority of Spanish firms, rarely file for formal bankruptcy when dealing with financial distress. This is why business bankruptcy rates in Spain are among the lowest in the world, even during the current economic crisis. To explain this fact we present the following...

Economic theory conjectures complementarities between the ranking of creditors in formal insolvency proceedings and the use of collateral in bank loan contracts as well as the existence of relational compared to arm's length lending. In this paper we seek evidence for these hypotheses taking...