This article proposes a method for measuring the latent risks involved in the recovery process of non-performing loans in financial institutions and/or business firms that deal with collection and recovery processes. To that end, we apply the competing risks model referred to in the literature...

Accurate probability-of-distress models are central to regulators, firms, and individuals who need to evaluate the default risk of a loan portfolio. A number of papers document that recent machine learning models outperform traditional corporate distress models in terms of accurately ranking...

This paper proposes and examines a new structural risk of default model for banks in frictional and fuzzy financial markets. It is motivated by the need to fill the shortcomings of probability-based credit risk metric models that are characterised by unrealistic assumptions such as crisply...

We highlight important and specific characteristics of default risk and methodological implications. In a simulation contrasting independent, Gaussian and Clayton copulas, we also show that joint default probabilities might be a hidden source of risk in conventional portfolio models of default

The article addresses the issue of stress testing based on the probability of bankruptcy and a rating migration matrix. The analysis is conducted on a sample of listed companies in Poland in the years 1998-2016, and the forecasts are made for the years 2016-2018. Particular attention is paid to...

Based on a rich data set of recoveries donated by a debt collection business, recovery rates fornon-performing loans taken from a single European country are modelled using linear regression,linear regression with Lasso, beta regression and inflated beta regression. We also propose atwo-stage...

A portfolio of nonperforming loans requires economic capital. We present two models for forecasting the portfolio loss and its probability distribution. In the first model, the loss for each nonperforming loan entails a change in provision over the risk horizon. The risk determinants are the...

We define several concepts of dependence between default risk and recovery risk, in a factor model framework. These concepts are illustrated and compared from the perspective of structural models: Merton (1974)'s single horizon and single firm model, multi-factor extensions, possibly under a...