Using a comprehensive sample of 2,585 bankruptcies from 1990 to 2019, we benchmark the performance of various machine learning models in predicting financial distress of publicly traded U.S. firms. We find that gradient boosted trees outperform other models in one-year-ahead forecasts. Variable...

We find a positive cross-sectional relationship between expected stock returns and default risk, contrary to the negative relationship estimated by prior studies. Whereas prior studies use noisy ex post realized returns to estimate expected returns, we use ex ante estimates based on the implied...

We analyze how Credit Default Swaps (CDS) affect bank incentives and borrower outcomes in renegotiations after covenant violations. Using a regression-discontinuity design and within lender-borrower variation, we find that CDS firms maintain investment after control rights shift to the creditor,...

We provide new evidence that the bankruptcy filing of a locally headquartered and publicly-listed manufacturing firm imposes externalities on the local governments. Compared to matched counties with similar economic trends, municipal bond yields for affected counties increase by 10 bps within a...

Multiple extensions of the federal student loan forbearance program since March 2020resulted in a temporary payment pause that lasted more than 3 years. We examine theimpact of long-term forbearance on the evolution of borrowing by distressed individuals.We observe substantial increases in...