The DRSK private firm model produces estimates of real-world default probabilities (DPs) for private companies. The product covers all firms for which the requisite data is available, providing point in time DP term structures for about 500,000 private firms globally.This year, we are...

We investigate the spatial dependence between commercial and residential mortgage defaults. A new class of observation-driven frailty factor models is introduced to do so. The idea of dynamic parameters embedded in the class of GAS models is utilized to estimate dynamic models of default risk...

This paper proposes a machine learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities. Default probabilities are computed using artificial neural networks to estimate the intensities of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes governing default process. The major contribution to previous...

This paper proposes a novel system-wide multi-state framework to model state occupations and the transitions among current, delinquency, default, prepayment, repurchase, short sale and foreclosure on mortgage loans. The approach allows for the modelling of the progression of borrowers from one...

We demonstrate theoretically and empirically the presence of forbearance lending by profit-maximizing banks to influential buyers in a supply network. If the financial market is concentrated, then banks can internalize the negative externality of an influential firm's exit. As a result, they may...

Accurate probability-of-distress models are central to regulators, firms, and individuals who need to evaluate the default risk of a loan portfolio. A number of papers document that recent machine learning models outperform traditional corporate distress models in terms of accurately ranking...

The Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy triggered the failure of the collateralized debt markets, which was a major contributor of the financial crisis in 2008. Such collateralized debt markets have both collateral price channel and counterparty (borrower and lender) channel of contagion. I propose a...

This paper is the first to compare the ability of the two structural credit risk models of Merton (1974) and Leland (1994a, b) to predict bankruptcy. We investigate different implementations of the Merton and Leland models on the whole CRSP/Compustat universe of firms from 1980 to 2015. Although...

This paper analyzes the unconditional measurement of default risk and proposes an alternative modeling approach. We begin the analysis by showing that when conducted under non-stationarity, the objective of the unconditional measurement changes and that some relevant problems appear as a...

Using a local adaptive Forward Intensities Approach (FIA) we investigate multiperiod corporate defaults and other delisting schemes. The proposed approach is fully datadriven and is based on local adaptive estimation and the selection of optimal estimation windows. Time-dependent model...