Roll rates and net flow rates can be seen as the evolution of ageing of accounts receivable and Markov chains. They are accepted methodologies to model the behavior of non-performing consumer loans by buckets and to predict losses, but we find that quite often they are wrongly used as...

When a loan is close to becoming non-performing, banks have stronger incentives to renegotiate it in favourable conditions for the borrower (loan forbearance) rather than for recognising and resolving the non-performing loan. At the aggregated level and looking at borrowers (non-financial...

The Irish banking system has in recent years experienced a large build-up in Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) during the crisis followed by a sharp reduction in the 2013-2017 period. In this article I present a recent history of the ongoing resolution of the mortgage arrears crisis in Ireland. Using...

Resolution of non-performing loans is a key determinant of bank credit default losses. This paper analyzes macroeconomic and systematic frailty effects of the default resolution time for a sample of 17,395 defaulted bank loans in USA, Great Britain, and Canada. We find that frailties have a huge...

We compare the performances of a wide set of regression techniques and machine learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees and random...

After addressing the securitisation of non-performing loans (NPLs) within the broader context of the ECB’s efforts to reduce NPL stocks and inflows, we investigate the structural and pricing features of NPL securitisations, issued by large banks in the euro area, by drawing on a unique and...

Correlated defaults and systemic risk are clearly priced in credit portfolio securities such as CDOs or index CDSs. In this paper we study an extensive CDX data set for evidence whether correlated defaults are also present in the underlying CDS market. We develop a cash flow based top-down...

This paper investigates systemic risk and contagion processes in the inter-bank network using network science methods. The inter-bank network consisting 10 banks, similar to the real world inter-bank networks, is studied to understand the contagion process in the network regarding changes in the...

This paper investigates a model of strategic interactions in financial networks, where the decision by one agent on whether or not to default impacts the incentives of other agents to escape default. Agents' payoffs are determined by the clearing mechanism introduced in the seminal contribution...

This paper investigates a model of default in financial networks where the decision by one agent on whether or not to default impacts the incentives of other agents to escape default. Agents' payoffs are determined by the clearing mechanism introduced in the seminal contribution of Eisenberg and...