I use the 2007-2008 financial crisis to gauge how internal financial resources and external financial constraints mitigate or worsen the impact of the crisis on default risk of US industrial firms. I identify heterogeneity in short-term funding needs at the onset of the crisis by exploiting...

This paper provides an alternative approach to the structural credit risk models. The first-passage-time approach extends the original Merton (Journal of Finance 29, 449-470) model by accounting for the fact that the default may occur not only at the debt's maturity, but also prior to this date....

We develop a structural equilibrium model with business cycles and use it to examine the economic implications of voluntary filing for bankruptcy. We find that conflict of interests that arises from the voluntary filing option of Chapter 11 causes higher ex-ante losses in firm value in...

The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since publishing of the major Altman's work (1968), based on multiple discriminant analysis, this methodological area has been considerably changed. Taking into...

The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since publishing of the major Altman's work (1968), based on multiple discriminant analysis, this methodological area has been considerably changed. Taking into...

This paper shows that forward default intensities in the Black and Cox (1976) model of corporate default can be expressed in terms of the Mills Ratio (Mills, 1926). The behavior of the forward default intensity and hence the survivorship functions then follows from inequalities that are...

Financial analyses such as valuation, solvency and capital adequacy play a crucial role in bankruptcy. Over the course of the 20th century, methods of financial analysis in bankruptcy have shifted from earnings multiples to discounted cash flow (DCF) and recently to market-based approaches such...

There have been 128 defaults among U.S. CDS reference entities between 2001 and 2020. Within this sample, the five-year CDS spread is a significant predictor of corporate default in models with equity market covariates and firm attributes. This finding holds for forecast horizons up to 12...

We discuss a simple, exactly solvable model of stochastic stock dynamics that incorporates regime switching between healthy and distressed regimes. Using this model, which is analytically tractable, we discuss a way of extracting expected returns for stocks from realized CDS spreads,...

This article develops a continuous-time asset pricing model for valuing corporate securities in the presence of secured and unsecured debt. We consider a framework where creditors dominate the renegotiation process. We show that the unsecured creditors are incentivized to liquidate the firm...