The forward-intensity model of Duan, {et al} (2012) is a parsimonious and practical way for predicting corporate defaults over multiple horizons. However, it has a noticeable shortcoming because default correlations through intensities are conspicuously absent when the prediction horizon is more...

We estimate term structures of default probabilities for private firms using data consisting of 1,759 default events from 29,894 firms between 1999 and 2014. Each firm's default likelihood is characterized by a forward intensity model employing macro risk factors and firm-specific attributes. As...

Defaults in a credit portfolio of many obligors or in an economy populated with firms tend to occur in waves, reflecting their sharing of common risk factors and/or having systemic linkages via credit chains. One popular approach to characterizing defaults in is the Poisson intensity model...

Market liquidity is informative of future corporate defaults but in a nuanced way. A firm's probability of default increases with market illiquidity only when the firm's funding liquidity is tight and/or solvency position is weak. Such relationship persists after controlling for a variety of...

A forward intensity model for the prediction of corporate defaults over different future periods is proposed. Maximum pseudo-likelihood analysis is then conducted on a large sample of the US industrial and financial firms spanning the period 1991-2011 on a monthly basis. Several commonly used...