We propose an econometric model for predicting the share of bank debt held by bankrupt firms by combining a novel set of firm-level financial variables and macroeconomic indicators. Our firm-level data include payment remarks in the form of debt collections from private agencies and attachments...

Modelling the link between the global macro-financial factors and firms’ default probabilities constitutes an elementary part of financial sector stress-testing frameworks. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive(GVAR) model and constructing a linking satellite equation for the firm-level...

The determinants of transitions between different states of financial distress are analyzed using two versions of Markov chain models: a multinomial logit model without random effects and a multinomial logit model capturing such unobservable factors. The empirical analysis is based on a panel...

When companies fail workers lose their jobs which raises the unemployment rate and some displaced workers with less financial wealth, larger financial obligations, and who are the sole bread winners in a family become likely candidates for a personal bankruptcy filing. The central role played by...

Early warning models are among the most utilized developments in finance. A good early warning model can predict with a high degree of accuracy the likelihood that a healthy company will either go bankrupt or become financially distressed. B2B companies supply products are now global. This paper...