Walter Bagehot is remembered today primarily as a proponent of the doctrine of lender of last resort, in which central banks pump money into the economy to ameliorate the damage from a financial crisis. But none of the growing number of publications about him appear to investigate in depth...

We discuss a simple, exactly solvable model of stochastic stock dynamics that incorporates regime switching between healthy and distressed regimes. Using this model, which is analytically tractable, we discuss a way of extracting expected returns for stocks from realized CDS spreads,...

I explain the key failure mechanics of large dealer banks, and some policy implications. This is not a review of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Systemic risk is considered only in passing. Both the financial crisis and the systemic importance of large dealer banks are nevertheless obvious...

Based on an empirical analysis of European corporations, we investigate the impact of sovereign risk on the pricing of corporate credit risk. In our paper, we show that sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) are positively correlated with corresponding corporate CDS spreads and are a significant...

This study examines the earnings management behaviour of 455 distressed US firms that filed for bankruptcy during the period 1986-2001. We examine (a) possible earnings management during the years prior to bankruptc-filing, (b) whether qualified audit opinions cause conservative earnings...

This paper proposes several frameworks to estimate the appropriate default correlations for structured products, each of which jointly considers the role of co-movements in modeled risk characteristics and un-modeled systematic risk, or 'frailty'. We contrast our estimates with credit rating...

Within a sample of firms undergoing financial distress, where the incentive to send false positive signals is high, we show that insider trading serves as a credible information channel about potential recovery for outside investors. We employ credit rating downgrades as confirmation of the...

I examine the role of sell-side debt analyst reports in the corporate bond market for financially distressed firms. Debt analysts are not subject to the same conflict-of-interest regulations as equity analysts, and for this reason it is an open question whether the primary function of debt...