This study explores whether taking into account variables for real earnings management improves specification of the default prediction model based on the Z-score methodology for Chinese listed companies. We demonstrate that the Z-score model proposed by Altman (1968) overestimates the survival...

This study examines the extent to which incorporating current-period and/or cumulative real activities earnings management in default models enhances their predictability. Aiming at Altman's (1968) Z-score as well as Ohlson's (1980) O-score predictors, such adjustments help mitigate the...

This paper develops a framework to estimate the probability of default (PD) implied in listed stock options. The underlying option pricing model measures PD as the intensity of the jump diffusion that the underlying stock price becomes zero. We adopt a two stage calibration algorithm to obtain...

There is a close link between prices of equity options and the probability of default of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, the standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the probability of default implicit in option prices....