Climate change poses severe systemic risks to the financial sector through multiple transmission channels. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of different carbon taxes (€50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on the Italian banks’ default rates at the sector level in the...

This paper examines the efficacy of carbon tax policies in view of the interactions between such policies and the firm’s carbon efficiency and financing decisions. We show that because the government, unlike capital markets, does not price its policy’s risk by taking into account default...

We document that European banks charge higher interest rates on loans granted to small and medium-sized firms located in areas at high risk of flooding. At 6 basis points, the average risk premium does not adequately reflect the deterioration of loan performance in the aftermath of flood...

The quantitative analyses related to firms’ default prediction extensively analyzed which balance sheet ratios include significant information on the probability of default of a firm. These analyses are typically aimed at measuring a generic default risk, while no analyses are aimed at...

We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk. We find that disaster risk and default risk together lead to slow post-disaster recovery and heightened borrowing costs....

Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility...

Short-term financing, e.g., asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) or repurchase agreements (repo), was prevalent prior to the 2007-2008 financial crises. Banks funded by short-term debts, however, are exposed to rollover risk as the banks are unable to raise sufficient funds to finance their...

This paper is the first to compare the ability of the two structural credit risk models of Merton (1974) and Leland (1994a, b) to predict bankruptcy. We investigate different implementations of the Merton and Leland models on the whole CRSP/Compustat universe of firms from 1980 to 2015. Although...

Firm-level default models are important for bottom-up modeling of the default risk of corporate debt portfolios. However, models in the literature typically have several strict assumptions which may yield biased results, notably a linear effect of covariates on the log-hazard scale, no...