This paper analyzes pass-through from money market rates to consumer retail loan and deposit rates in Canada from 1983 to 2015 using a nonlinear vector error-correction model. In contrast to empirical frameworks used in previous studies, this model permits estimation of long-run pass-through...

This paper investigates how and to what extent nonlinearity, including the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, affects the estimates of the natural rate of interest in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. We find that the estimated natural rate...

Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...

We present evidence that the natural rate of interest is buffeted by both permanent and transitory shocks. We establish this result by estimating a benchmark model with Bayesian methods and loose priors on the unobserved drivers of the natural rate. When subject to transitory shocks, the median...

Policy rates in advanced economies are at record lows and central banks have resorted to unconventional policy tools, but there are concerns that the low policy rates have not been transmitted to lending rates for households and non-financial firms. In this special feature, we investigate...

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

Holston, Laubach and Williams’ (2017) estimates of the natural rate of interest are driven by the downward trending behaviour of ‘other factor’ z(t). I show that their implementation of Stock and Watson’s (1998) Median Unbiased Estimation (MUE) to determine the size of the...

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the...

We identify the dynamic causal effects of interest rate floor shocks, exploiting regular auctions of Swiss central bank debt securities (SNB Bills). A theoretical model shows that variation in the volume of, and yield on, central bank debt changes the interest rate floor. In addition, the model...

We identify the dynamic causal effects of interest rate floor shocks, exploiting regular auctions of Swiss central bank debt securities (SNB Bills). A theoretical model shows that variation in the volume of, and yield on, central bank debt changes the interest rate floor. In addition, the model...