This paper proposes a theoretical monetary model to inquire as to whether the growth and decline in barter transactions between firms in Russia during the 1990s was the result of credit rationing or firms' optimal decision. The model also provides an explanation for the negative correlations...

This paper sets up a model to inquire into whether the rise and fall in barter transactions in Russia and other CIS countries during the 1990’s was an involuntary decision resulting from credit rationing or the consequence of firms’ optimal choice. We find that the transmission mechanism of...

A popular way to approximate Federal Reserve policy is through the use of estimated interest rate equations, or policy rules. In these rules, the dependent variable is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve is assumed to control and the explanatory variables are those factors assumed to...

A large output gap accompanied by stable inflation close to its target calls for further monetary accommodation, but the zero lower bound on interest rates has robbed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the usual tool for its provision. We examine how public statements of FOMC intentions...

We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

This paper provides a critique of zero lower bound (ZLB) economics which has become the new orthodoxy for explaining stagnation. ZLB economics is an extension of pre-Keynesian economics which attributes macroeconomic dysfunction to rigidities and market imperfections. The ZLB is the latest...

In a seminal study Hodrick et al. (1991) evaluate the ability of a simple cash-credit model to produce realistic variability in consumption velocity while at the same time successfully explaining other key statistics. Sufficient variability in the latter is found to be associated with far too...

The past half-century has seen major shifts in inflation expectations, how inflation comoves with the business cycle, and how stocks comove with Treasury bonds. Against this backdrop, we review the economic channels and empirical evidence on how inflation is priced in financial markets. Not all...

China's interest rate market is unique because its central bank sets a term structure of official interest rates on bank deposits and loans as well as money supply. In this paper we explore both theoretically and empirically how market interest rates in China are related to economic...

We compute average mark-ups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries covering the period 1970-2007, show...