We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...

A standard, no-recourse mortgage contract does not adjust when the value of the underlying collateral falls. Consequently, shocks that lower house prices may trigger one of the necessary conditions for default: negative equity. A common alternative contract attempts to prevent default by...

Samuelson's biological theory of interest rate - that population growth rate and interest rate must be the same - affects many countries, especially in shaping their population and retirement policies. This paper proves that he derives his so-called theorem by many tricks, which are, however, in...

Zimbabwe is one nation that has for many years remained on the top list of economies with high interest rates spread. High interest rates are a signal of financial sector inefficiency. The stability of the financial sector is greatly linked to economic growth and economic stability. The study...

The neutral rate of interest is an important concept and communication tool for central banks. We develop a small open economy model with overlapping generations to study the determinants of the neutral real rate of interest in a small open economy. The model captures domestic factors such as...

Real interest rates have fallen substantially in advanced economies since the early 1980's. We show that this trend can be explained by a common pattern in fertility rates. Fertility rates fell in all advanced economies in the 1970's, and this led to an outsized cohort of 'baby boomers'. The...

We estimate that the supply of sovereign safe assets is a major driver of neutral interest rates--real rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their trends. We find this result using an empirical cross-country model with many economic drivers for the neutral rates of 11...

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...

Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced variation over the business cycle and with the stance of monetary policy, and a tight relationship with the slope of the yield curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has...

This paper presents a theoretical model of the term structure of interest rates based on the monetary policy decision-making process at modern central banks. Evaluations of explicit expressions for the spot and forward rate curve render several important results: (i) Spot and forward rates are...