We explore the natural rate of interest, shortly r ∗ , in emerging economies. If economic growth originates from convergence, then growth, say, from technological progress will be lower than we find in the data and, hence, r ∗ will be lower. Ignoring convergence upwardly biases our estimates...

We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal interest rates, exchange rate growth, and...

The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive...

The monetary conditions index is a composite index of interest and exchange rates frequently used by central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. This paper considers the benefits and weaknesses of the monetary conditions index in...

We discuss the evolution in macroeconomic thought on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and present related empirical evidence. The core channels of policy transmission — the neoclassical links between short-term policy interest rates, other asset prices such as long-term interest...

We establish a benchmark result for the relationship between the loanablefunds and the money-creation approach to banking. In particular, we show that both processes yield the same allocations when there is no uncertainty and thus no bank default. In such cases, using the much simpler...

In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking into account the variations of the natural real interest rate (rt*) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of rt* that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present...

The European Central Bank's interest rate hikes since July 2022 have been passed on to customers by banks on credit markets to a much greater extent than on deposit markets. As a result, banks' net interest margins have risen extraordinarily sharply. An analysis of the interest rate pass-through...

I describe nine implications of the interconnectedness of fiscal and monetary policy that surface in Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models. Not all are unique to HANK models. (i) Long run fiscal changes force monetary adjustments. (ii) Sustainable permanent deficits are feasible. (iii)...

The federal funds rate became uninformative about the stance of monetary policy from December 2008 to November 2015. During the same period, unconventional monetary policy actions, like large-scale asset purchases, show the Federal Reserve's intention to depress longer-term interest rates. This...