We explore the natural rate of interest, shortly r ∗ , in emerging economies. If economic growth originates from convergence, then growth, say, from technological progress will be lower than we find in the data and, hence, r ∗ will be lower. Ignoring convergence upwardly biases our estimates...

We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal interest rates, exchange rate growth, and...

The monetary conditions index is a composite index of interest and exchange rates frequently used by central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. This paper considers the benefits and weaknesses of the monetary conditions index in...

The financing structure of the euro area economy has evolved since the global financial crisis with non-bank financial intermediation taking a more prominent role. This shift affects the transmission of monetary policy. Compared with banks, non-bank financial intermediaries are more responsive...

We discuss the evolution in macroeconomic thought on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and present related empirical evidence. The core channels of policy transmission — the neoclassical links between short-term policy interest rates, other asset prices such as long-term interest...

We establish a benchmark result for the relationship between the loanablefunds and the money-creation approach to banking. In particular, we show that both processes yield the same allocations when there is no uncertainty and thus no bank default. In such cases, using the much simpler...

In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking into account the variations of the natural real interest rate (rt*) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of rt* that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present...

Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2003) argue that if you relied solely on local analysis you would be led to believe that aggressive, backward-looking interest rate rules are sufficient for determinacy. But from the perspective of global analysis, backward-looking rules do not guarantee...

This paper analyzes the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce local real indeterminacy into the economy. It conducts the analysis in a Calvo-style sticky price model. A key innovation is to add investment spending to the...

Nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has received a lot of attention over the past decade. This note provides a brief review of the key arguments for NGDP targeting and then presents some practical ways to use it in the conduct of U.S. monetary policy. Specifically, this note shows how to construct...