Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a … small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. - Forecasting ; Inflation …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation …

Hansen Co-integration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation …

This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal … inflation rates in the long run despite the presence of positive relationship among the variables. Our study recommends the … adoption of potent policies aimed at checking inflation so as to help reduce high interest rates in order to stimulate growth …

last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation … model in different forecasting exercises. -- bond yields ; interest rates ; cointegration ; inflation ; forecasting …