It's been used for years as a predictor of future interest rates, but these days, the yield curve is being used to predict recessions.

Presentation to the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York City - Sept. 21, 1999

Address before Bryant College, Providence, R.I., Oct. 14, 2003

We study a simple, microfounded macroeconomic system in which the monetary authority employs a Taylor-type policy rule. We analyze situations in which the self-confirming equilibrium is unique and learnable according to Bullard and Mitra (2002). We explore the prospects for the use of ‘large...

This article examines the dynamic relationship between two key U.S. money market interest rates - the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Using daily data over the period 1974 to 1999, we find a long-run relationship between these two rates that is remarkably stable across...