This paper develops a model of the term structures of nominal and real interest rates driven by state variables representing the short-term real interest rate, expected inflation, inflation’s central tendency, and four volatility factors that follow GARCH processes. We derive analytical...

In this paper I revisit the debate on the impact of bank and market characteristics on the rigidity of retail bank interest rates. Whereas existing research in this area has been exclusively concerned with static measures of bank and market structure, I adopt a dynamic approach which explores...

This paper develops a new financial stress measure (Cleveland Financial Stress Index, CFSI) that considers the supervisory objective of identifying risks to the stability of the financial system. The index provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that...

Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple test of models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be inflationary. But a monetary model...

A development of a simple model in which interest rate claims are priced in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton paradigm and so incorporate full information on the term structure. The volatility structure for forward rates is humped and includes as a special case the exponentially dampened volatility...

A discussion of the circumstances under which interest rate rules are consistent with nominal determinacy in macroeconomic models.

A discussion of how mortgage lenders might use posted lending terms to signal both their eagerness to take new loan applications and their lending standards.

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under which will it have the opposite effects? The authors answer these questions in a general class...

Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample...

The authors analyze the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest-rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce real indeterminacy into the economy. They conduct this analysis in a flexible price economy and a sticky price model that satisfies the natural rate hypothesis....