Based on a switching-cost model, we examine empirically the hypotheses that bank loan mark-ups are countercyclical and asymmetric in their responsiveness to recessionary and expansionary impulses. The first econometric model treats changes in the mark-up as a continuous variable. The second...

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that...

A large empirical literature attempts to identify US monetary policy shocks using the effective federal funds rate. This paper compares the time series behavior of the effective federal funds rate to 10 US interest rates with maturities ranging form overnight to 10 years. Using a spectral...

One of the most influential tests of the expectations hypothesis is Mankiw and Miron (1986), who found that the spread between the long-term and short-term rates provided predictive power for the short-term rate before the Fed's founding but not after. They suggested that the failure of the...

This paper uses a dynamic factor model recently studied by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000) and Forni, Giannone, Lippi and Reichlin (2004) to analyze the response of 21 U.S. interest rates to news. Using daily data, we find that the news that affects interest rates daily can be...

This paper creates a new series of the FOMC*s Target for the federal funds rate for the period September 27, 1982 through December 31, 1993. The creation of this series was motivated by Thornton (2005). Analyzing the verbatim transcripts of the FOMC, Thornton finds that most of the FOMC believed...

Despite its important role in macroeconomics and finance, the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates has received little empirical support. While the EH*s poor performance has been attributed to a variety of sources, none appear to account for the EH*s poor...

Motivated, on the one hand, by the belief that the Fed controls the short-term rate through open market operations, and on the other, by "the lack of convincing proof that this is what happens," Hamilton (1997) suggested that more convincing evidence of the liquidity effect could be obtained...

This paper re-examines the validity of the Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to three months. We extend the work of Longstaff (2000a) in two directions: (i) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this...