This paper presents a validation experiment of a global CGE trade model widely used for analysis of trade liberalization. We focus on the ability of the model to reproduce price volatility in wheat markets. The literature on model validation is reviewed with an eye towards designing an...

With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such analysis is Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling. Yet these models have been widely criticized...

This paper examines the poverty impacts of global merchandise trade reform by looking at a wide range of developing countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Overall, we find that trade reform tends to reduce poverty primarily through the inclusion of agricultural components. The majority of...

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross-country data on consumer expenditures from the International...

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross-country data on consumer expenditures from the International...

We utilize a global trade model to generate distributions of commodity and factor prices based on observed uncertainty in rice production. This is done for three trade policy regimes. We then assess their impact on domestic price variability and the likelihood of marginal households falling into...

Trade policy reform prospects have generated debate about the impacts on poverty. Some critics assert that price changes induced by trade reform are minimal and may not be distinguishable from price fluctuations induced by other shocks to the global economy. This paper addresses this issue by...

The poverty effects and in particular the impact of trade liberalization on smallholder livestock producers in African and South East Asian developing countries (Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Mozambique, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Philippines) is addressed by disaggregating income sources...

We investigate distributional impacts of WTO reforms on US rice producers. Model results show that rice producer's household income is very sensitive to the amount of market access achieved in export markets and the depth of subsidy cuts in the US, largely explaining the US negotiating position...

As a new round of World Trade Organization negotiations is being launched with greater emphasis on developing country participation, a body of literature is emerging which quantifies how international trade affects the poor in developing countries. This survey summarizes and classifies...