The global economy of the past century was dominated by the United States and Western Europe. When they sneezed, the old joke goes, the rest of the world caught a cold. But that dominance is now being challenged by the rise of rapidly growing emerging market economies. And the shift is changing...

We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector,...

This article documents the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09, as well as the dramatic recovery in trade of 2009-10. The authors consider how three distinct policy actions - fiscal stimulus, funding for trade finance, and a commitment to refrain from increasing trade barriers - might have affected...

Central to the global impacts of China's emergence has been its structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), but this has diminished considerably in the transition years since 2010. These imbalances are now reversed as its consumption expands faster than its GDP and so the...

Product and financial market integration determine the global implications of China's recent growth surge and its on-going transition from export led growth. These alter China's structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), which in turn shifts the international terms of...

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral...

Microfoundations of the euro's effect on euro area trade hinge on the timing, the speed and the size of adjustment in trade costs. We estimate timing, speed and size of adjustment in trade costs for sectoral trade data. Our approach allows for sector specific impacts of trade costs on sectoral...

In the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis, there was frequent discussion of Asia having decoupled from economic shock transmission originating in Europe or North America. Much of the basis for these arguments was related to the rapid expansion of intraregional trade in Asia. This paper...

This paper examines whether increasing trade intensity among East Asian countries has led to a synchronization of business cycles. It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004) in two ways: by (i) improving the specification of their business cycle correlation equation, and (ii) extending the...

Bilateral and regional cooperation initiatives in Asia have been growing in importance over the last five years.These accords span the real and financial sectors; rather than following the more typical pattern of "trade first,money later", recent policy initiatives involve the simultaneous...