We examine the effects of World Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Trade flows for 31 European economies between 1995 and 2023. To do so, we resort to Panel estimation techniques, including OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Our findings reveal that European nations primarily...

It is generally argued that open trade is crucial for economic growth and development. The economic literature also argues that growth is an important option for reducing poverty in developing countries. The paper analyzed the causality between the trade, growth and poverty for Pakistan using...

We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices - as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate - but the relationships are not always precisely or robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and decreasing as the...

The purpose of this study is to provide down-to-earth macroeconomic policy implications from the up-to-date estimates of the trade system in the OECD countries. Understanding on the linkages between the world trade mechanism and the macroeconomy is of utmost importance for the post-crisis...

We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector,...

In recent years, major exporting economies experienced rising geopolitical risk. From the perspective of the US and the euro area, we employ detailed product data panels to study the consequences of trading-partner geopolitical risk shocks on bilateral imports. We find that these shocks lower...

The threat of the subprime crisis in the United States began to make itself felt in early 2008, with its effects subsequently become global. It is evident that trade linkages have been the most important channel for transmitting the subprime crisis to East Asian countries, including Thailand....

The aim of this study is to test the existence of balance of a payments constraint on the long run economic growth of the Turkish economy. The balance of payments constrained growth (BPCG) model which was developed by Thirlwall (1979) and extended by Thirlwall and Hussain (1982) is tested over...

We estimate the euro effect on Irish export patterns using a panel of industry data over the period 1993-2004. Our innovation is to account for country and industry specific omitted trending variables bias. We find that the euro effect on Irish exports to the euro area countries relative to the...

Despite performing very positively on some key macroeconomic indicators in recent years, the German economy is in grave disequilibrium if the high current account surplus is included in the analysis. The paper scrutinises the evolution of Germany's external surplus since the inception of the...