Using the 2007-09 financial crisis as a laboratory, we analyze the transmission of crises to country-industry equity portfolios in 55 countries. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of...

This paper considers the general equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and global imbalances. It emphasizes that the exchange rate is not a primitive but an equilibrium price determined by the policy mix. It uses extensions of the two-country Obstfeld-Rogoff model to analyze the...

Systemic risk among the network of international banking groups arises when financial stress threatens to criss-cross many national boundaries and expose imperfect international co-ordination. To assess this risk, we apply an information theoretic map equation due to Martin Rosvall and Carl...

The global financial crisis of 2008 has ruptured the global economic order. The United States and Europe, the rulers of the order since World War II, have struggled to recover from the crisis. By contrast, most emerging and developing economies rebounded relatively quickly over the past year....

This working paper was written by J. Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) and Eric Van Wincoop (University of Virginia and NBER).The correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 127 advanced and developing countries. We provide...

This paper addresses the dynamics of the Swedish external position, with a particular focus on its inter-relation with the external value of the krona. We argue that financial globalisation means that a broader conceptual framework is required, whereby exchange rate fluctuations operate through...

How common and how persistent are turbulent periods? We address these questions by developing and applying a dynamic dependence framework. In order to answer the first question we estimate an unconditional mixture model of normal copulas, based on both economic and econometric justification. In...

This paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development, financial development, legal system development, government...

This paper analyses the issues raised by EMU for the relationships between the euro area and the international financial system. The depreciation of the euro exchange rate since the beginning of EMU has attracted most attention. The paper argues that none of the conventional explanations is...