We derive new tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts based on Rosenblatt probability integral transforms. These tests have the advantage that they i) do not depend on the ordering of variables in the forecasting model, ii) are applicable to densities of arbitrary...

Political leaders value public demonstrations of support from foreign leaders and frequently make concessions in order to obtain them. We model the bargaining dynamics surrounding these exchanges and their impact on the recipient leader's political survival, with a focus on top-level diplomatic...

At the Second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, held in April 2019, it was declared that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) included 125 countries and involved over 1000 projects, worth a total of US$ 3-4 trillion. The Belt and Road Initiative was born big when President Xi announced it in 2013 in...

This chapter contributes to comparative regionalism studies by exploring the Belt and Road Initiative (BR) as an emerging regionalism project. We start by stating a need for broad conceptual frameworks to study the BR dynamics and consider the “world of regions” framework as such an...

This can be considered an Asian version of Grand theory of world history, written by Ooi Kee Beng who sought to codify his dialogues with eminent historian Wang Gungwu on world history. There are many Grand theories of world history. Most are linked to Leopold Ranke's Rankean historical...

Intro -- Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data -- Contents -- List of Acronyms -- List of Tables -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Introduction -- Policy -- Security -- Multilateral Cooperation -- Bilateral Cooperation -- Economic -- Russian Foreign Policy in Central Asia -- First Stage...