We derive new tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts based on Rosenblatt probability integral transforms. These tests have the advantage that they i) do not depend on the ordering of variables in the forecasting model, ii) are applicable to densities of arbitrary...

Political leaders value public demonstrations of support from foreign leaders and frequently make concessions in order to obtain them. We model the bargaining dynamics surrounding these exchanges and their impact on the recipient leader's political survival, with a focus on top-level diplomatic...

The paper aims to examine economic interdependence and balancing power politics, and their mixed implications for regional institution building in East Asia based on the concept of common security. By pointing out the gap between the violent conflict prediction and the stability and prosperity...

The Economic and Military bilateral relation between Pakistan-China bilateral relations have been given more importance since president Musharraf assumed powers in 1999 and its going smooth also in Zardari's regime. The Chinese government always responded positively by show their state to do...

In an interconnected world, economic and political interests inevitably reach beyond national borders. Since policy choices generate external economic and political costs, foreign state and non-state actors have an interest in inflencing policy actions in other sovereign countries to their...

COVID-19 is provoking a major reorientation of American and European foreign policy. At the heart of this is their changing relationship with China. The pandemic has given rise to fears of a new Cold War, which are based on out-of-date assumptions and a misunderstanding of China’s motivations....

The Russian system is not yet capable of running on its own, without Putin amid internal and external challenges and threats.Russian youth sees him as a hero; photos, participating in skiing, fishing, hunting, judo, hockey, ice dip in sub zero freezing water to mark Epiphany, and horse riding...

This paper aims to provide a pragmatic policy approach to countering China's influence on trade and investment in the west. It also examines how the United States should address China's ever-growing threat to regional rights, freedoms, trade, security and democracy

The current geopolitical transition in global interstate relations from a unipolar power structure, in which American primacy was largely uncontested and generally acknowledged, to a multipolar international system characterized by the relative decline of the United States and what Zakaria...

The paper examines ASEAN's political and security challenges and prospects in the coming two decades. The challenges facing ASEAN could be classified into six broad categories: (1) the shifting balance of power in the Asia Pacific; (2) the persistence of intra-ASEAN territorial conflicts; (3) the...