We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are...

The pandemic has urged countries around the globe to mobilize financing to support the recovery. This is even more relevant in Central America, where the policy response to cushion the pandemic's economic and social impact has accentuated pre-existing debt vulnerabilities. This paper documents...

Intro -- Contents -- I. MOTIVATION -- II. HISTORICAL EVIDENCE ON DEFAULT AND LENDING RESUMPTION -- III. THE ENVIRONMENT -- IV. OBSERVABLE TYPES -- V. UNOBSERVABLE TYPES -- VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- PROOFS OF PROPOSITIONS 3 AND 4 -- REFERENCES.

Why do almost all sovereign nations list their international bonds on stock exchanges? We examine several hypotheses for what drives sovereigns to list and where. In particular, we test the often invoked “bonding hypothesis,” which posits that exchanges perform a certification and monitoring...

This paper uses new data on the timing of sovereign defaults during 1869-1914 to quantify an informational channel of contagion via shared financial intermediaries. Concerns over reputation incentivized Britain's merchant banks to monitor, advise, and occasionally bail out sovereigns. Default...