We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multiindustry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals...

We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multiindustry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals...

A major feature of globalization has been the enormous increase in international flows of goods and services: countries are now trading much more with each other. In this article, the authors demonstrate the greater role vertical specialization is playing in these increased flows. Vertical...

Dramatic changes are occurring in the nature of international trade. Production processes increasingly involve a sequential, vertical trading chain stretching across many countries, with each country specializing in particular stages of a good's production sequence. We document a key aspect of...

We examine why the gravity equation works and the implications for its use. First, we demonstrate that the gravity equation as a statistical relationship can be generated from a model with incomplete specialization and trade costs. Second, we analyse the predominance of zero bilateral trade...