Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 499
Cover Image
Global recessions and booms : what do probit models tell us?
Baumann, Ursel; Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Seitz, Franz - 2018
We present non-linear binary Probit models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2016. For that purpose, we use four different business cycle dating methods to identify the regimes (upswings, downswings). We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011865195
Cover Image
Global recessions and booms : what do Probit models tell us?
Baumann, Ursel; Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Seitz, Franz - In: Quantitative finance and economics 3 (2019) 1, pp. 187-200
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012176458
Cover Image
The great synchronization of international trade collapse
Antonakakis, Nikolaos - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009622250
Cover Image
Konjunktur auf der Kippe – Handlungsoptionen finden?
In: Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 94 (2014) 12, pp. 847-858
Die Prognosen der Konjunkturexperten für 2014 haben sich als zu optimistisch erwiesen. Eine wesentliche Ursache für die sich ausbreitende Stagnation ist die unsichere weltwirtschaftliche Lage und die gedämpfte Konjunktur im Euroraum. Um die Konjunktur anzukurbeln, werden unterschiedliche...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010463492
Cover Image
Potential Output and Recessions : Are We Fooling Ourselves?
Martin, Robert - 2015
revisions to potential output rather than through rapid post-recession growth. The revisions are made slowly (over years) – a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014828
Cover Image
Global Recessions
Kose, M. Ayhan - 2020
, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by … crisis, advanced economies felt the brunt of the recession. The subsequent expansion has been the weakest in the post … emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well and delivered a stronger recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841841
Cover Image
Meta-Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation
Fidrmuc, Jarko - 2019
We summarize previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903337
Cover Image
Global Long-run Risk and International Business Cycles : A Factor-Stochastic Volatility Approach
Figueiredo, Calebe - 2018
We extract a global factor from cross-country output growth since 1960. We find that the fluctuations of the global factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908986
Cover Image
Real‐time weakness of the global economy
Leiva‐Leon, Danilo; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel; Rots, Eyno - 2020
We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249766
Cover Image
Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610