This paper demonstrates the welfare implications of the differential disintegration of the EU. Using a structural gravity approach, our estimates suggest that the rest of the EU countries have much more to lose from the disintegration of the EU compared to a disorderly Brexit. At the same time,...

The UK is struggling to maintain a powerful global position against a backdrop of the British public having a longstanding difficulty in appreciating the benefits of EU membership. The success of the ‘leave' EU campaign has created huge uncertainty over future ties with the EU. The...

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs and investment, on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach, where the production side is modeled...