the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …

We propose measures of financial market stress for forty-six countries and regions across the world. Our measures … wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, hardly anywhere in the world did these March peaks in financial stresses reach those … for the near-term economic outlook across most parts of the world, with the exception of China. A structural Bayesian VAR …

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world … outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%. …

the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We … after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is. …

achieves set-identiÖcation via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We Önd that the world …, the larger the world output contraction is. …