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heightened risk aversion, leading to shifts in investment portfolio allocations and cross-border capital flows; a nd t he r eal e …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015065805
We examine the effects of increased international integration of both goods and financial markets on business cycle dynamics. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework for modelling cross-country spillovers in which the magnitude of these spillovers is an empirically determined function...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414228
In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging Asia and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the "decoupling" of emerging Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging Asian economies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011283453
the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We … after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431805
achieves set-identiÖcation via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We Önd that the world …, the larger the world output contraction is. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432185
repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0:23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market … volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0:29 percentage points, but it could also have negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969747
repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market … volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983788
the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011615515
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170616