The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we use a confidential firm level panel data set (Business Tendency Survey) from Turkey to form three uncertainty measures, namely total, idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. In...

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we use a confidential firm level panel data set (Business Tendency Survey) from Turkey to form three uncertainty measures, namely total, idiosyncratic and aggregate uncertainty. In...

The interaction between income distribution, accumulation, employment and the utilization of capital is central to macroeconomic models in the 'heterodox' tradition. This paper examines the stylized pattern of these variables using US data for the period after 1948. We look at the trends and...

The German economy's upward growth trend continues, with the economic output expected to increase by 1.4 percent this year with slightly overloaded capacities. Employment growth remains strong with the creation of 600,000 new jobs, which has in turn led to an increase in private consumption -...

Using a German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The cross-sectional...

Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneous-firm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...

We estimate a New-Neoclassical Synthesis model of the business cycle with two investment shocks. The first, an investment-specific technology shock, affects the transformation of consumption into investment goods and is identified with the relative price of investment. The second shock affects...