Similar Search Results

Wirtschaftliche Konvergenz trotz politischer Unsicherheit

Grübler, Julia - 2017

Das internationale Umfeld für die Wirtschaft der mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Länder (MOSOEL) präsentiert sich als Kontrast zwischen wirtschaftlichem Aufschwung einerseits sowie politischer Unsicherheit und geopolitischen Spannungen andererseits. Kurzfristig setzen sich die...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100200

MOSOE: Konjunkturzenit überschritten

Astrov, Vasily; Grübler, Julia - 2018

MOSOE Konjunkturzenit überschritten Die jüngsten Statistiken deuten auf ein weiterhin robustes BIP-Wachstum in den meisten Ländern Mittel‑, Ost- und Südosteuropas (MOSOEL) hin. Der konjunkturelle Höhepunkt scheint allerdings bereits überschritten zu sein. Einerseits lässt die Dynamik...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100203

Osteuropa trotzt dem globalen Gegenwind

Astrov, Vasily; Grübler, Julia - 2019

Die Konjunktur in den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) kühlt sich zwar ab, aber viel weniger als noch im Frühjahr erwartet Die Prognosen für heuer wurden für die Mehrheit der Länder nach oben revidiert. Vor allem in der EU-MOE-Region hat sich das Wachstum vom...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012100207

A high-frequency financial conditions index for Norway

Bowe, Frida; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolò - 2023

We have constructed a financial conditions index for Norway (FCIN). The FCIN offers a daily update on Norwegian financial conditions based on data from January 2003 on bank lending rates, bond spreads, the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market. The index is constructed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551613

Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway

Bowe, Frida; Kirkeby, Sara Jahr; Lindalen, Ingvild Hagen; … - 2023

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551740

ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis: Development, current practices and prospective challenges

Ciccarelli, Matteo (contributor); … - 2024

in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio … of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they can in principle be used for economic forecasting, scenario and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565152

2023 macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system. Bank resilience in a changing environment: challenges and opportunities

Cappelletti, Giuseppe; Dimitrov, Ivan; Le Grand, Catherine - 2024

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014565213

Forecasting unemployment in Finland: A flow approach

Lindblad, Annika; Gäddnäs, Niklas - 2024

. Labour market flows improve forecasts over very short forecasting horizons. Additional labour market variables can improve … proves advantageous especially when forecasting two quarters ahead. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574908

Assessing the mid-term growth outlook for the Indian economy

Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto - 2021

analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168653

Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting

2021

) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households' and firms' inflation … can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it … bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661646