The secret behind Warren Buffett's extraordinary success as an investor has intrigued many people. However, there is not much academic research on it. Frazzini, Kabiller, and Pedersen (2018) carried out a systematic empirical study of the investment performance of Warren Buffett from 1976 to...

I study the determinants of mutual fund managers' expectations about the stock market and its implications for decision making and fund performance. Using a direct measure of managers' market expectations extracted from mutual funds' semi-annual reports, I find that fund managers extrapolate...