We analyze the out-of-sample performance of variables shown to forecast future mutual fund alphas. The degree of predictability, as measured by alpha spreads from quintile sorts or by cross-sectional regression slopes, falls by at least half post-sample. These declines appear to be primarily the...

This paper is based on the premise that knowledge about the alphas of one set of funds will influence an investor's beliefs about other funds. This will be true insofar as an investor's expectation about the performance of a fund is partly a belief about the abilities of mutual fund managers as...

This paper is based on the premise that knowledge about the alphas of one set of funds will influence an investor's beliefs about other funds. This will be true insofar as an investor's expectation about the performance of a fund is partly a belief about the abilities of mutual fund managers as...

While no two mutual funds are alike in terms of their mandates and constraints, metrics used to evaluate fund performance relative to peers typically fail to account for these differences by relying on generic benchmark indices and rankings. We develop a methodology to construct a conditional...

While no two mutual funds are alike in terms of their mandates and constraints, benchmarks used to evaluate managers fail to account for these differences by typically using unadjusted indices as performance benchmarks. In this paper, we develop a methodology to evaluate a portfolio manager's...