We propose a measure of dispersion in fund managers beliefs about future stock returns based on their active holdings, i.e., deviations from benchmarks. We fi nd that both the level of and the change in dispersion positively predict subsequent stock returns on a risk-adjusted basis. This effect...

The consensus wisdom of active mutual fund managers, as reflected in their average over- and underweighting decisions, contains valuable information about future stock returns. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of active U.S. equity funds 1984-2008, we find that stocks heavily overweighted by...