This paper develops a restrictive procedure for evaluating economic policy decisions, by comparing actual economic history to a simulated history where a specific policy decision is replaced with a counterfactual, but credible, alternative. Our procedure is theoretically straightforward, but...

This paper develops a simple model of the gap between socially and privately optimal bank lending when a bank has an overhang of impaired loans, and analyzes government policies designed to close this gap. The impaired loans have risky cash flows but observable market values. A number of basic...