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Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts

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Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Sheng, Xuguang Simon - 2015

We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining the evolution of expert disagreement in forecasting real GDP growth and inflation over 24 monthly horizons for G7 countries during 1990-2007. Professional forecasters are found to begin and have relatively more success...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014214793