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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392749
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529
We apply Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index methodology to monthly industrial production indices to study business cycle interdependence among G-6 industrialized countries since 1958. The business cycle spillover index fluctuates substantially over time, increasing especially after the 1973-75,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003830890
cycle in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, using two complementary approaches in our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136227
We use tests for multiple breaks at unknown points in the sample, and the Stock-Watson (1996, 1998) time-varying parameters median-unbiased estimation methodology, to investigate changes in the equilibrium rate of growth of labor productivity - both per hour and per worker - in the United...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777974
, the United States, Germany, and Japan). We employ a dynamic small open economy business cycle model that incorporates a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780440
six countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan). We evaluate the models‘ abilities to match empirical second … parametrizations, sticky information performs better in France while sticky prices dominate in the UK and Germany. Sticky prices match …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124276
We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely … reached for the United States, the ProbVAR forecasts are slightly worse for Germany, but considerably inferior for Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316154
This paper studies business cycle interdependence among the industrialized countries since 1958. Using the spillover index methodology recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009a) and based on the generalized VAR framework, we develop an alternative measure of comovement of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014201075
This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered, and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089398