Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the variance risk premium predicts aggregate stock market returns. We demonstrate that statistical finite sample biases cannot “explain” this apparent predictability. Further corroborating the existing evidence of the U.S., we show that country...

The slope coefficient estimator in predictive regressions for stock returns is biased by a lagged stochastic regressor. There is also a spurious regression if the underlying expected return is highly persistent. This paper studies how the interactions between the two biases affect inferences...

We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a...

We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a...

This paper documents the time-series and cross-sectional variations in bank capital ratios and investigates their underlying driving forces using listed Japanese bank data from 1977 to 2009. We derive an overall framework in the form of a present-value model to decompose the ariation in bank...

This paper presents and compares several time-series models for returns of broadbased stock indices. These models nest a nonlinear asymmetric GARCH (NGARCH) model as a special case. Some of these models are empirically motivated ad-hoc specifications others are derived from a representative...

Using an updated Japanese sample covering the 1975-2006 period, we reexamine whether it is Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model or Daniel and Titman's (1997) characteristic model that better explains stock returns in the Japanese market. In contrast to Daniel, Titman, and Wei (2001), we...

Based on two hundred years of annual data of the Netherlands , Germany , US and Japan we analyse the mean reversion of long-term interest rates, by unit root tests over rolling windows and taking into account structural breaks and regime changes. While short-term rates and the yield curve tend...

In this paper, I explore the presence of non-linearity for the daily series of 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yields by using the Tsay (1989) test, I find the threshold nonlinearity due to a significant change in Japanese debt management policy.I test to find the sixth lag of the series...