This paper econometrically models the dynamics of long-term Chinese government bond (CGB) yields based on key macroeconomic and financial variables. It deploys autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models to examine whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term...

This paper presents a simple model of the long-term interest rate. The model represents John Maynard Keynes's conjecture that the central bank's actions influence the long-term interest rate primarily through the short-term interest rate, while allowing for other important factors. It relies on...

This paper models the dynamics of Japanese government bond (JGB) nominal yields using daily data. Models of government bond yields based on daily data, such as those presented in this paper, can be useful not only to investors and market analysts, but also to central bankers and other...

This paper relates Keynes's discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors' expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the...

There are several widely used benchmark models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance. However, these models have yet to incorporate Keynes's valuable insights about interest rate dynamics. The Keynesian approach to interest rate dynamics can be readily incorporated in the...

Using panel data models, we analyze the flypaper effects-whether intergovernmental fiscal transfers or states' own income determine expenditure commitments - on ecological fiscal spending in India. The econometric results show that the unconditional fiscal transfers, rather than the states' own...

John Maynard Keynes (1930) asserted that the central bank sways the long-term interest rate through the influence of its policy rate on the short-term interest rate. Recent empirical research shows that Keynes's conjecture holds for long-term Treasury yields in the United States. This paper...