Gegenstand dieses Beitrags ist eine quantitativ orientierte Diskussion einiger Wirkungen einer Umstrukturierung des Steuersystems anhand der neuesten und wesentlich erweiterten Version des Konstanzer aggregierten Ungleichgewichtsmodells für die westdeutsche Volkswirtschaft für den Zeitraum von...

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations with a macroeconometric model. A macroeconometric disequilibriummodel of the West German economy is used to analyze a reform proposal for the tax system. The model was estimated...

Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified...

Efficient routines for multidimensional numerical integration are provided by quasi-Monte Carlo methods. These methods are based on evaluating the integrand at a set of representative points of the integration area. A set may be called representative if it shows a low discrepancy. However, in...

In this paper a macroeconometric disequilibrium model for West Germany is presented and its quality for policy simulations and forecasting are analyzed using stochastic in-sample simulations. The model is built on a dynamic disequilibrium model of firms' behaviour. Due to delayed adjustment of...

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecifed...