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-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396
We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012139754
We model economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the four largest euro area countries by applying machine learning techniques to news articles. The unsupervised machine learning algorithm used makes it possible to retrieve the individual components of overall EPU endogenously for a wide range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844456
Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958250
This work focuses on forecasting emerging technology trends in the insurance industry with the use of artificial … and are increasingly becoming a threat in the insurance market. Forecasting emerging technology trends can support … gain a competitive advantage and how beneficial it will be to substitute the proposed approach for conventional forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355359
In this paper, we explore machine learning (ML) methods to improve inflation forecasting in Brazil. An extensive out …-of-sample forecasting exercise is designed with multiple horizons, a large database of 501 series, and 50 forecasting methods, including new … are relevant to forecasting inflation. The set of top forecasts often includes forecast combinations, tree-based methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014382916
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480111
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013287882
This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011948379