Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary policy and fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions also called online machine learning to forecast...

This working paper was written by Paul D. McNelis (Fordham University).This paper assesses sources of contagion emanating from both within the Hong Kong banking sector as well as from external sources. For robustness, the paper uses alternative measures of contagion, one based on Forecast Error...

Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary and "fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions, also called online machine learning, to forecast...