The paper attempts to evaluate the prospect of creating a currency union in the "Greater China" economic area including Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Despite of the political deadlock and military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, the Greater China area has experienced rapid and...

With the rapid flow of knowledge and capital from Hong Kong and Taiwan to Mainland China, a dynamic economy of “Greater China” has emerged, making the Chinese trio increasingly interdependent on trade and investment. In this paper we develop a three-variable VAR model to assess empirically...

The predictive likelihood is of particular relevance in a Bayesian setting when the purpose is to rank models in a forecast comparison exercise. This paper discusses how the predictive likelihood can be estimated for any subset of the observable variables in linear Gaussian state-space models...