We employ artificial neural networks using macro-financial variables to predict recessions. We model the relationship between indicator variables and recessions 1 to 10 periods into the future and employ a procedure that penalizes a misclassified recession more than a misclassified...

We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. In this model, the presence of the lagged latent variable, which captures the autocorrelation in the recession binary variable, results in an intractable likelihood with a high dimensional integral. Therefore, we employ...

In this paper, we estimate the distribution of future inflation and growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for the Canadian economy at a daily frequency. To do this, we model the conditional moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of inflation and GDP growth as moving averages of...